If you’re reading this, then chances are you’ve seen the proposed Texas House maps. You know that there are now supposedly 92 safe Republican seats instead of 82…which means that Republicans drew a map which won’t protect all 101 Republican incumbents.
You know that there are 7 districts that pair Republicans: Landtroop/Perry (West Texas), Burkett/Driver (Dallas), Hamilton/Ritter (Southeast Texas), Anderson/Harper-Brown (Dallas), Scott/Torres (Nueces), Chisum/Hardcastle (West Texas, though Chisum is planning on running for the Railroad Commission), and Cain/Flynn (Northeast Texas). While a few of these pairings seem to give an obvious advantage, others not so much. Who’s going to win them?
You also know that the map pairs Democrats Hubert Vo and Scott Hochberg in Harris County. Paul Burka writes about this:
One of the key decisions concerning this map was to reduce the number of seats in Harris County from 25 to 24. The math called for Harris to get 24.4 seats. Solomons stuck by the strict interpretation of that number, which resulted in the pairing of Hochberg and Vo, and the ultimate loss of a Democratic seat. I’m told that Republicans feared a court challenge if they gave Harris 25 seats, but I don’t buy it. The R’s were out to maximize seats and they had the wherewithal to do it.
Republicans currently have 101 seats and incumbency protection is always a huge part of redistricting. Very few people think that a map can be drawn that retains all of those 101 Republican seats given legal restrictions. The Voting Rights Act protects black and Hispanic reps. Vo and Hochberg aren’t, so they are one of the few vulnerable reps, and they are from the same part of town. And then Harris County came in under the 24.5 number necessary to give it 25 seats. So why would the redistricting commitee risk a lawsuit when it makes a ton of sense to draw two non-protected guys together when they live near each other? Hence the somewhat misused analogy in the title.
And of course, you know that saying that “Ritter/Hamilton” pairs Republicans is…only technically true. Alan Ritter switched parties after the election because he saw the writing on the wall with redistricting looming. When he switched, he certainly didn’t sound happy about it. More than a few people assumed he was hoping to get the best map he could by switching sides.
Finally, Burka’s two predictions:
1. “I’d wager right now that by the end of the cycle represented by this map, Republicans will be down to 85 seats due to continued white flight into the collar counties around the Metroplex, and into Fort Bend County and Northwest Harris County outside of Houston.”
2. “When the next House map is drawn, Republicans will be looking at Latino districts for pickups.”
His first prediction might be true. I haven’t had time to really get into the Harris County maps, but I assume that under this map for Democrats to get Republicans down to 85, they’d need to win some seats in Harris County. There are certainly some seats that could flip in the next decade. It depends a bit on demographics.
As for Burka’s second prediction, I hope he’s right. I think he probably is. But answering that question basically involves knowing whether Texas will still be a red state in 20 years.